According to the Median agency voting model for September 2026, the ANO movement would win elections to the lower house with 29.5 percent of the vote, its lowest figure since May.

Image from the publication ČTK / České noviny
Image from the publication ČTK / České noviny, 17. 10. 2026

The Median agency published a voting model on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, based on a survey conducted in September, that is, before the municipal and Senate elections. According to it, the ANO movement would have won elections to the lower house in September with 29.5 percent of the vote; that is 4.5 percentage points less than in August and the lowest value since May. The STAN movement improved by five points to 17 percent, and ODS would receive 12.5 percent.[1]

The Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic would also be entered by SPD with nine percent, the Czech Pirate Party with 7.5 percent and Motoristé sobě with five percent. According to the model, KDU-ČSL, the Communists, TOP 09 and Naše Česko would not pass the five percent threshold.[1]

The model assumes the following distribution of seats: ANO 72, STAN 43, ODS 31, SPD 22, Pirates 19 and Motoristé sobě 13. The authors of the model noted that ANO would still need at least one coalition partner. The current governing parties ANO, SPD and Motoristé sobě would hold 107 deputies, while the present coalition has 108 seats in the 200-seat lower house.[1]

According to the survey, turnout would be 59 percent, about ten points lower than in the October 2025 elections to the lower house, when it reached 68.95 percent. Roughly a thousand respondents took part in the survey. According to Median, ANO remains the most common choice among people aged 45 and over, and STAN among people aged 18 to 24.[1]

The Czech News Agency also recalls a survey by the NMS agency, in which ANO would win in October with 28.8 percent ahead of STAN with 18.8 percent, and a survey by the STEM agency, according to which ANO would receive 31.3 percent, STAN 16.6 and ODS 11.3 percent.[1]

Related articles: ANO, Median

Chronology

  • — The agency Median published a survey according to which the ANO movement would have won a Chamber of Deputies election in September, with its support at the lowest level since May. iROZHLAS ČTK / České noviny

Sources

  1. ČTK / České noviny — 17 October 2026